[Lincolnparkdc] DC's Coronavirus Data - cause for concern?

[Paul Krupa]

Thanks for the heads up Tom.
Paul

On Sun, May 31, 2020 at 2:31 PM Tom Woteki <drwo at woteki.com> wrote:

> Dear Neighbors:
>
> I was looking at DC’s coronavirus data in preparation for updating the
> report I sent out on 3 previous occasions. I discovered some anomalies in
> the data that raise questions about how reliable DC's data are.
>
> Upon reviewing the data i found that in an earlier reporting period DC
> reported total number of tests for May 22 to May 25 as follows: 42,993,
> 51,991, 51,991 and 40,803.
>
> Therefore according to the earlier report there were on May 23rd an
> additional 8,993 additional tests performed compared to May 22. This far
> exceeded the daily number of new tests that had been previously reported.
> For example, the 42,993 tests reported on May 22 was an increase of only
> 1,237 compared to May 21. The reported number for May  25  was 40,803 with
> no explanation or the reduction from 51,991.
>
> In the current reporting period ending on May 30, the numbers were revised
> again without explanation. The number of tests on May 22 is now reported as
> 38,928 down from 42,993 on May 21. And the number reported for May 25 is
> 42,055.
>
> My point is that the numbers keep being revised, in some cases *downward,* and
> without explanation. The changes suggest a problem with collecting and
> reporting test data. The lack of explanation on the official DC site is
> concerning to me. A conceivable explanation for the downward changes is
> that antibody tests were being reported along with infection tests. Nowhere
> in DC’s reporting can I find any discussion of antibody testing.
>
> The key metric Mayor Bowser is using in deciding reopening is sustained
> decrease in “community spread”. The definition of this metric appears to
> depend on the test data. And the monitoring period for the metric includes
> the dates mentioned above. It is not apparent how the changes described
> above have affected this metric and decision making. Data for this metric
> are not downloadable.
>
> I’m bringing this to your attention because my previous reports were based
> on the reliability of DC’s data. In my opinion we should all be concerned
> about the reliability of DC’s data particularly as it used in decision
> making.
>
> Tom
>
>
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-- 
Paul
202 255 9008
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