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<div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Thank you, Tom, for bringing this to our attention. Inaccurate, incomplete, or questionable data should not be used to drive policy.</div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false"><br></div><div dir="ltr" data-setdir="false">Judy</div><div><br></div>
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On Sunday, May 31, 2020, 02:31:22 PM EDT, Tom Woteki <drwo@woteki.com> wrote:
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<div><div id="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><div>Dear Neighbors:<div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">I was looking at DC’s coronavirus data in preparation for updating the report I sent out on 3 previous occasions. I discovered some anomalies in the data that raise questions about how reliable DC's data are.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">Upon reviewing the data i found that i<span style="color:rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">n an earlier reporting period </span>DC reported total number of tests for May 22 to May 25 as follows: 42,993, 51,991, 51,991 and 40,803.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">Therefore according to the earlier report there were on May 23rd an additional 8,993 additional tests performed compared to May 22. This far exceeded the daily number of new tests that had been previously reported. For example, the 42,993 tests reported on May 22 was an increase of only 1,237 compared to May 21. The reported number for May 25 was 40,803 with no explanation or the reduction from 51,991.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">In the current reporting period ending on May 30, the numbers were revised again without explanation. The number of tests on May 22 is now reported as 38,928 down from 42,993 on May 21. And the number reported for May 25 is 42,055.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">My point is that the numbers keep being revised, in some cases <i class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">downward,</i><span style="font-style:normal;" class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"> and without </span>explanation. The changes suggest a problem with collecting and reporting test data. The lack of explanation on the official DC site is concerning to me. A conceivable explanation for the downward changes is that antibody tests were being reported along with infection tests. Nowhere in DC’s reporting can I find any discussion of antibody testing.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">The key metric Mayor Bowser is using in deciding reopening is sustained decrease in “community spread”. The definition of this metric appears to depend on the test data. And the monitoring period for the metric includes the dates mentioned above. It is not apparent how the changes described above have affected this metric and decision making. Data for this metric are not downloadable.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">I’m bringing this to your attention because my previous reports were based on the reliability of DC’s data. In my opinion we should all be concerned about the reliability of DC’s data particularly as it used in decision making.</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467">Tom</div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div><div class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"><br class="ydp967adf39yiv0976529467"></div></div></div>_______________________________________________<br>LincolnParkDC mailing list<br><br>To post to the list address your message to: <a href="mailto:LincolnParkDC@lincolnparkdc.info" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">LincolnParkDC@lincolnparkdc.info</a><br>When replying, please consider whether to reply to the sender only, or to the list, which is the default.<br>Not all replies are appropriate for the entire list.<br><br>Please do not send administrative requests to the list. Please click on the following link to<br>switch to digest mode, change your password, or otherwise manage your subscription:<br><a href="https://vps.woteki.com/mailman/listinfo/lincolnparkdc_lincolnparkdc.info" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://vps.woteki.com/mailman/listinfo/lincolnparkdc_lincolnparkdc.info</a><br><br>If you need assistance managing your subscription, please address your request to: <a href="mailto:towncrier@lincolnparkdc.info" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">towncrier@lincolnparkdc.info</a><br>Please do not address assistance requests to the list. Thank you for your cooperation.<br></div>
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