[Lincolnparkdc] DC's Coronavirus Data - cause for concern?

[Margaret Rafferty]

Really good info Tom.  Thanks for figuring that out. Sure would be nice if DC explained their change in numbers/formula. I’m skeptical.

Margaret

Sent from my iPhone

On May 31, 2020, at 2:31 PM, Tom Woteki <drwo at woteki.com> wrote:

 Dear Neighbors:

I was looking at DC’s coronavirus data in preparation for updating the report I sent out on 3 previous occasions. I discovered some anomalies in the data that raise questions about how reliable DC's data are.

Upon reviewing the data i found that in an earlier reporting period DC reported total number of tests for May 22 to May 25 as follows: 42,993, 51,991, 51,991 and 40,803.

Therefore according to the earlier report there were on May 23rd an additional 8,993 additional tests performed compared to May 22. This far exceeded the daily number of new tests that had been previously reported. For example, the 42,993 tests reported on May 22 was an increase of only 1,237 compared to May 21. The reported number for May  25  was 40,803 with no explanation or the reduction from 51,991.

In the current reporting period ending on May 30, the numbers were revised again without explanation. The number of tests on May 22 is now reported as 38,928 down from 42,993 on May 21. And the number reported for May 25 is 42,055.

My point is that the numbers keep being revised, in some cases downward, and without explanation. The changes suggest a problem with collecting and reporting test data. The lack of explanation on the official DC site is concerning to me. A conceivable explanation for the downward changes is that antibody tests were being reported along with infection tests. Nowhere in DC’s reporting can I find any discussion of antibody testing.

The key metric Mayor Bowser is using in deciding reopening is sustained decrease in “community spread”. The definition of this metric appears to depend on the test data. And the monitoring period for the metric includes the dates mentioned above. It is not apparent how the changes described above have affected this metric and decision making. Data for this metric are not downloadable.

I’m bringing this to your attention because my previous reports were based on the reliability of DC’s data. In my opinion we should all be concerned about the reliability of DC’s data particularly as it used in decision making.

Tom


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