[Lincolnparkdc] DC amends recent data on COVID positives and announces that the "clock" for reopening has been set back by 3 days

[JE Writer Editor]

 Thanks very much for this update, I had missed it!
    On Sunday, May 24, 2020, 10:28:52 PM EDT, Holtzman, Steve (SMD 6B05) <6b05 at anc.dc.gov> wrote:  
 
   
https://dcist.com/story/20/05/24/d-c-was-set-for-14th-day-of-declining-cases-but-new-data-reset-clock-by-3-days/



Dr. LaQuandra S. Nesbitt, Director, DC Department of Health, left, speaks as District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser, center, and Christopher Rodriguez, Director, DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Services, right, listen during a news conference about the District’s monitoring, preparation, and response to the coronavirus Tuesday, March 3, 2020, in Washington. Associated Press / Luis M. Alvarez

New data revealed by D.C. Health Department officials show that the two-week benchmark for case decline has not been met. Officials reported a “new peak” in coronavirus community spread on Sunday, but it was not immediately clear how this will impact the city’s tentatively planned reopening on May 29.




District officials calculate community spread by the date of symptom onset while taking out cases at facilities such as nursing homes. The city was headed for the 14th straight day of decline in that metric, a goal set by the administration as a key metric for entering Phase 1 of reopening, today.




The District says the new data point will now move the calendar back by three days. “It is confirmed that a new peak was detected in the data, resetting the count to 11 days of sustained decline,” the mayor’s office said in a release.

The graph provided by the D.C. Health Department.D.C. Health

It seemed something was amiss after D.C.’s coronavirus data wasn’t posted, as usual, around 10 a.m. The city didn’t release the figures until about 4:45 p.m. and it wasn’t immediately clear what they would mean.

D.C.’s Director of Health Dr. LaQuandra Nesbitt held a follow-up call with reporters in which she was asked two main questions: why did this peak not reset D.C. to day zero, as officials said it previously would? And does this change Mayor Muriel Bowser’s statement last week that the city could be set to enter Phase 1 on Friday, May 29?

On the first, Nesbitt said that on day 11, the number of cases surpassed two standard deviations of the previous peak, which is calculated using a five-day rolling average: 40. Today, the number of cases based on symptom onset rose by 50.

According to Nesbitt, that’s why the city rolled back to day 11 as opposed to day zero.


If you find this confusing, you are not the only one. Repeated questions to clarify and explain was met by some impatience from Nesbitt, even though she admitted it’s rather difficult to fully grasp.


“When you’re communicating to people, ‘Well, we’re making this decision based on a change in standard deviation. We don’t have to go back to zero. We’re just going back to day eleven.’ It can become just a tad bit frustrating for folks,” she said.

On the second question—if this new peak changes plans for beginning to reopen—Nesbitt noted that this was just one of the metrics (along with hospital capacity and positive test rate) that the city is tracking.

However, she didn’t provide clarity on the date, repeatedly deferring to the Bowser’s planned Tuesday press conference.

Overall, 144 new cases were added to the District’s total, which was nearly double the 73 reported yesterday, bringing the overall number to 8,110. In addition, five new deaths were reported.

It was the second day in a row that the city’s data raised questions. On Saturday, the mayor’s office reported a one-day total of nearly 9,000 tests—more than five times higher than any other single day.

That contributed to a significant drop in D.C.’s test positivity rate, which White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx had pointed out was among the country’s highest on Friday. A mayoral spokesperson explained that it was a one-time addition to account for multiple tests from commercial labs that had been conducted on the same individuals.




__________________________________________________________________________________________________Steve Holtzman, 6B05

For the latest information on the District Government’s response to COVID-19 (Coronavirus), please visitcoronavirus.dc.gov.
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